Gay Political Predictions for The New Year

It is never easy predicting what will happen in politics.

Most voters stay tuned out until shortly before Election Day, with ever growing numbers not even bothering to cast ballots. Polls can present false impressions of where a race is headed.

The news media increasingly ignores issues-based reporting to focus merely on the horse race aspects of campaigns and who has raised the most money. Meanwhile, most local and down ticket state races receive scant coverage these days.

Nonetheless, the Political Notebook continues to ask LGBT politicos to make their best guesses about what the next 12 months holds in store at city halls, the state Capitol, and on the national political stage. This year marks the 10th anniversary of this New Year's tradition.

But before plunging into the 2015 predictions, here is a look back at some of the prognostications made about last year. First up, some of the way-off-base guesses.

Nationally, Congress failed to pass an immigration reform bill; Democrats did not hold on to the Senate; and gay Republican Carl DeMaio did not make history by winning a House seat in San Diego.

In California gay San Francisco Supervisor David Campos failed to win an Assembly seat; a repeal effort of a bill protecting transgender school children failed to make the ballot (though a few people correctly predicted this one); and no well-known progressive ran against moderate gay Supervisor Scott Wiener for his District 8 seat.

As for a sampling of what became true: Congressman Mike Honda (D-Campbell) won re-election; Betty Yee defeated her opponents, including gay former Assembly speaker John A. Perez (D-Los Angeles) to become the new state controller; and Governor Jerry Brown sailed to a historic fourth term.

Check back to this column come 2016 to test the veracity of this year's group of soothsayers.

2015 Predictions

Angel VanStark, California State Director for the Campaign for a Presidential Youth Council:

The end of 2014 has awakened a long slumbering uprising that's been in the making since the election of Ronald Reagan. At the forefront of these efforts are young people in Hong Kong; Palestine; Mexico; and Ferguson, Missouri, to name a few. Even though we've been accused of being the most apathetic generation, millennials will passionately challenge systemically problematic legislation and policies.

Nationally, more progressive legislation will be introduced under the State Innovation Exchange in a challenge to the American Legislation Exchange Council, which is primarily responsible for drafting such legislation as SB 1070, the controversial Arizona anti-immigration bill, and other conservative laws. Same-sex marriage will finally become legal everywhere in the United States, which might create more Republican gay men, who will abandon other LGBT issues that affect LGBT folks of color, transgender people, young LGBT folks, and/or LGBT immigrants, because white, gay men will have one of the last forms of privileges that they need to live equal lives.

On the topic of racial issues, the end of 2014 has begun the second wave of the civil rights movement. It will start small, with a temporary fix to the police brutality epidemic that our nation faces; the most progressive cities with racial issues, such as Berkeley, San Francisco, New York City, and Los Angeles, will start to turn to their respective police commissions and go through each page of their respective police general orders, the police code of conduct and manual, to find that it is flawed and indoctrinates police officers in racial bias. In San Francisco, I predict changes to the police code that goes over community policing.

2015 will be a polarized year, an uncomfortable year, and a revolutionary year. Change hurts, but complacency kills.

Kevin Dowling, Former Hayward City Councilman:

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-California) will announce by March that she is not running for re-election in 2016. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom announces his bid and so does newly elected and super ambitious Secretary of State Alex Padilla. Attorney General Kamala Harris will wait for the open governorship in 2018.

New Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf has a rough start with continued protests against police shootings and the announced plan by the Oakland Raiders to move back to Los Angeles. Golden State Warriors make the Western Conference Finals but lose again to the old school San Antonio Spurs.

Hayward's Latino community is bracing for three strong candidates for city council in 2016: incumbent Francisco Zermeno , appointed council member Eliza Marques , and former City Councilman Mark Salinas .

State Assembly freshman class stars: Assemblymen David Chiu (D-San Francisco) and openly gay Evan Low (D-Campbell).

Newly elected Senate Pro Tem Kevin De Le-n (D-Los Angeles) is replaced by former Assembly speaker and newly elected Senator Bob Hertzberg after scandals and mistakes keep coming after his presidential level swearing-in.

Presidential race: Hillary Clinton announces and only faces token Democratic opposition to her party's nomination.

Mayor Ed Lee will face strong opposition in November; 50 percent chance that Senator Mark Leno changes his mind and runs.

Nate Albee, Aide to San Francisco Supervisor David Campos:

No one runs against Mayor Lee unless he's caught with a dead body or a live man. Actually, getting caught with a live man would probably get him even more votes.

2015 will be the year of strange bedfellows. Big Tech's meddling in local politics has redrawn the lines in the sand forcing former enemies to form new alliances. Expect more interesting teams like Campos and Supervisor Mark Farrell (D2); and housings activists and the San Francisco Apartment Association.

The Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club, which 10 years ago had a dwindling membership made up of the city's crankiest activists, has grown under the leadership of Tom Temprano into a young, savvy, and strangely hip power player. It's only going to get stronger under new Co-Presidents Laura Thomas and Peter Gallotta . Expect them to continue flexing their new fundraising and field game muscles against their arch-nemesis, and sometimes frenemy, the Alice B Toklas LGBT Democratic Club.

The terms progressive and moderate will stop mattering in 2015; the new teams will be who's bought and who's not. As the city's very own Koch Brothers, Ron Conway and Reid Hoffman, become household names, it's going to be a lot harder for politicians to pretend that votes aren't being bought and sold in City Hall.

The city's Left has retreated to the San Francisco equivalent of the Ewok Planet where they will make plans to take down the Evil Empire in 2016. Open supervisor seats and a presidential election will result in a new class of left freshmen supervisors who will stand up to tech money and make development deals that are good for the people of San Francisco rather than just their own careers.

2015 will begin the rise of the moms. San Franciscans will realize that to keep families in San Francisco we have to actually elect representatives that know what it's like to take care of kids, have a career, and navigate our byzantine school and transportation systems during a housing crisis. Moms will throw their hats in the ring in record numbers and will start what will be a national revolution in equal pay, universal child care, real maternity leave and health care.

John Bauters, Emeryville Civic Leader:

The U.S. Supreme Court will open the year by agreeing to take up a series of lower court appeals on the issue of same-sex marriage. In a historic 5-4 decision written by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the court rules that the freedom to marry the person you love is protected by the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. Justice Antonin Scalia argues in his dissent that the court should not intervene in state domestic relations laws and says the right to define marriage should rest with the states.

Outside of the court's ruling, the federal government will be a major downer for the LGBT movement this year. Look for Republican leadership on the Hill to dig in their heels on federal immigration reform and employment discrimination measures that would protect and strengthen LGBT families.

The state Senate race to replace newly elected Congressman Mark DeSaulnier (D-Concord) in District 7 will largely be defined by the primary showdown between former Assembly colleagues Joan Buchanan and Susan Bonilla . Both women have been strong leaders in the East Bay, but I predict Bonilla will narrowly take the primary and then win the seat.

While many have speculated that a number of big names will jump into the race for San Francisco mayor, I predict that it will be little more than chatter in the end. With almost no opposition, look for Mayor Lee to win reelection handily in a dud of a race.

The affordability of housing has suffered in the wake of redevelopment's dissolution and the court decision in Los Angeles v. Palmer. In the meantime, landlords and property owners are capitalizing on the high-priced rental market that emerged from the foreclosure crisis. Many tenants living just above the poverty line now spend 50 percent or more of their income on rent. Anything more than a minor dip in the economy or job market could spell disaster for thousands of Bay Area families locked into pricey leases. In 2014, the California Association of Realtors came out in force against SB 391, the California Homes and Jobs Act, which would have created a permanent funding source for affordable housing development. Look for Assembly leadership to return to the table with the hope of creating a permanent funding source for affordable housing again in 2015 - and for the real estate industry to fight once again to maintain the untenable status quo.

Jamie Whitaker, South Beach, Rincon, Mission Bay Neighborhood Association Board Member:

I predict Mayor Lee's District 3 supervisor appointee in January will have a resume that includes experience working for the Chinatown Community Development Center and a blessing from Rose Pak . If the appointee is Planning Commission President Cindy Wu, she fills a huge knowledge gap on the board about the community health impacts of bad land use planning.

I believe Supervisor Scott Wiener will become Board of Supervisors president in 2015 because he is the most expert horse trader thanks to years of experience actively participating in the San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee. That is a compliment.

The November 2015 election will be a cakewalk for San Francisco incumbents except Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi . I believe the sheriff will eke out a re-election victory because San Franciscans see the good in everyone and are increasingly disgusted by the tactics of technology venture capitalists' political action committees and advertorial lynchings of our public servants' reputations.

Affordability and transportation (pedestrian safety in particular) will be the city's big focus in 2015. While the flow of venture capital money needs to significantly slow down before rents decline, a re-calibration of the Central SoMa Plan to emphasize housing rather than its current focus of more office space would help with affordability. While a second BART tube is just a fantasy, San Francisco and Alameda counties should work on getting a dedicated bus lane on both decks of the Bay Bridge to encourage transit use by commuters. Instead of waiting for the San Francisco Police Department to earnestly enforce traffic laws, I predict Supervisor Jane Kim will write legislation to make greater use of computerized traffic sensors for enforcement.

Larry Bush, 2013-2014 SF Civil Grand Jury Member:

Look for Mayor Lee to re-dial his political persona this year (for at least the election season). His mooning over the tech industries with regular weekly lunches at their offices, his avid pursuit of things like the Olympics and high profile costly events, and his foreign trips bankrolled by lobbyists and those seeking City Hall approvals will increasingly be contrasted with complaints that he has failed to tend to some basic needs (anyone remember the Housing Authority elevators in a senior/disabled building not due to be repaired until next October? Or the ambulance shortage due to his budget priorities while reducing taxes on the tech industry?).

But local politics tends to be personal more than ideological, and Lee will continue to be haunted by his appointees who would be fired in any other administration (Mel Murphy at the Port; Larry Mazzola at the Airport; Wendy Paskin Jordan at Retirement). He will get smooth seas from city labor unions, most of which will be renegotiating their contracts during the key months of the mayoral campaign.

But Lee may well lack coattails to see his pick for District 3 supervisor elected against a challenger, and that would impact any second term.

Expect gay former state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano to continue to keep open the option of running for Leno's state Senate seat.

The Castro neighborhood may well drop its high ranking for voter turnout as the neighborhood feels the impact of hundreds of high-end condos, and the once prolific individual small businesses will struggle to hold their own against chain stores (the old Obelisk versus Pottery Barn, Now Voyager travel agency versus online reservations, and the Patio still won't get its act together). Halloween will disappear entirely from community consciousness.

Gloria Nieto, Longtime LGBT Activist and Santa Cruz Resident:

As I look into my crystal ball for 2015 I predict that relationships between citizens and police will continue to be tense until: 1. We stop the militarization of the police; and 2. The U.S. citizenry recognizes the depth and breadth of racism in the country and the pain it has caused. I also predict things will continue to escalate causing more and more human damage.

On a national level I see no chance for full equality with the passage of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. But I do see marriage equality continuing to spread across state lines. Florida next baby!

The LGBT community will stretch our hands across the Florida Keys and find friendship and common cause with our hermanos y hermanas en Cuba. There will be more friendship trips to expand our world community and hear the truths from those living in Cuba.

Russian queers will continue to fight the incredible fight for equality against the monstrous Putin regime.

Queers will continue to be heard as #blacklivesmatter, #berobin, climate change and other issues requiring compassion and commitment move forward in a world that still needs us to be active and visible.

Last but not least, I think more people will join the ranks of ukulele players like myself and bring joy to others and ourselves four strings at a time.